Holy Bull Stakes awaits Hansen

Horseracing Betting Lines

01/09/2012 - Hallandale Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Hansen will make his 2012 debut in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on January 29. The three-year-old colt is owned by Dr. Kendall Hansen and trained by Mike Maker.

"This horse has been such a dream," Dr. Hansen said about the Eclipse Award finalist. "Right now, all I can think about is January 29 and the Holy Bull Stakes. I've never been to Gulfstream Park before and we have a group of about 20 or 30 people set to make the trip."

The Holy Bull comes 13 days after the 2011 Eclipse Awards are announced in Beverly Hills.

"In my mind, we've already won," said Dr. Hansen. "We're going to be involved in the six-month discussion leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Because the horse will be getting all of this recognition, I feel we've already won.

"I can understand the conflict voters have with Union Rags (Juvenile runner- up) getting a wide trip, but I think all you can do is settle it on the racetrack. That's what races are run for. We had our share of disadvantages too. If speed and the rail were good that day, we might have won by five lengths."

The other finalist for the Eclipse Award as champion two-year-old male is Creative Cause who was third in the Juvenile. The colt had won the Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita along with the Best Pal at Del Mar.

Hansen defeated 11-10 favorite Union Rags by a head after setting most of the pace in the 1 1/16-mile race. Creative Cause was another length back as the 5-1 second choice.

Last year Dialed In won the Holy Bull on his way to capturing the Florida Derby. The colt would go off as the 5-1 favorite in the 2011 Kentucky Derby, but finish eighth.

Skynook Horseracing Betting News

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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