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08/16/2010 - Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Harvick was enduring a miserable season at this point in 2009, as he sat 23rd in the Sprint Cup Series point standings. One year later, "Happy Harvick" is smiling more than ever after winning his third race of the season and becoming the first driver to lock down one of the 12 positions for this year's championship Chase.
Harvick's win at Michigan on Sunday was his first on a non-restrictor plate track since November 2006. Harvick was winless in NASCAR's top-tier series during the 2008 and '09 seasons before his 115-race drought came to an end in April at Talladega. He also won in July at Daytona.
With three races remaining before the Chase begins next month at New Hampshire, Harvick and his Richard Childress Racing teammates, Clint Bowyer and Jeff Burton, are in the top-12 in points. Bowyer finished 13th at Michigan and reclaimed the coveted 12th spot. After his disappointing 28th-place run, Mark Martin is 13th and trails Bowyer by 35 points. Burton holds the seventh position.
Harvick has been the points leader since the spring race at Richmond. He now is 680 points ahead of Bowyer, a margin that allowed him to clinch a spot in the Chase after Michigan. The points margin between Harvick and second-place Jeff Gordon is 293.
Harvick's phenomenal season has been the highlight of Richard Childress Racing's resurrection in 2010.
"I think the reason for it is we were so damn bad last year," Harvick said of the resurgence. "I think it's just a matter of everybody was embarrassed last year. We've really been running pretty well since probably the last six or eight weeks of last year. It didn't just happen today.
"One of the best things that we all went through last year was the fact that we I realized everybody didn't like losing as much as I did, and we all wanted to achieve the same goals. We were headed in the right direction to do those things. I think it's just coincidental timing."
Team owner Richard Childress would agree.
"We got way off last year, started coming back towards the end of the year," Childress said. "Kevin and I talked. We knew a lot of things we wanted to change, work on, fix. We fixed a lot of them. I'm just happy to have him back here for three more years. We're gonna be contenders, for sure."
After a disappointing 19th-place finish in points last year, it looked like Harvick was on his way out of RCR at the conclusion of this season, when his contract with the team was set to expire.
Harvick, who has driven the No.29 car for RCR in Cup since replacing Dale Earnhardt after Earnhardt's fatal crash in the 2001 Daytona 500, signed a contract extension with Childress in May.
Childress and Harvick have scheduled a press conference at their race shop in Welcome, NC on Tuesday. The duo reportedly will announce that Budweiser will sponsor Harvick's No.29 team, starting in 2011. His present sponsor, Shell/Pennzoil, is leaving RCR at season's end and taking its sponsorship to Kurt Busch's new No.22 ride at Penske Racing next year.
As good as he's been, Harvick has not cornered the market on winning, and his main goal right now is to pick up wins and additional bonus points before the start of the Chase. Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin lead the series with five victories each, though Johnson has not won since the last weekend in June at New Hampshire, and Hamlin hasn't driven into Victory Lane since two months ago at Michigan. Harvick is next in line with his three wins.
"Do you think it would go over well if we went on vacation? Probably not," Harvick said. "Right now, we're in a fortunate position to be doing what we're doing. I've been in that 12th, 13th-place battle and it sucks, to be honest with you. You can't sleep at night, and you can't do anything to get your mind off of that.
"We're going to enjoy it. We're going to go and race hard, and we're going to try to gain 30 more bonus points. Hopefully we can have a couple things that we can try. For sure now, whether it's engines, parts, pieces, over the next three weeks, try to get a little bit better."
Hamlin and Johnson could clinch their spots in the Chase after next Saturday night's race at Bristol.
Harvick has emerged as the favorite to win this year's Chase in some circles, but that's a dangerous line of thinking based on recent events.
Last year, Tony Stewart won three races and held a sizeable points lead heading into the regular season-ending race at Michigan. But Johnson dominated the Chase by winning four races and easily capturing his record fourth consecutive Cup title. Stewart finished sixth in points, with one win in the Chase at Kansas.
In 2008, Kyle Busch won eight races before entering the Chase, but Busch's title hopes quickly went up in smoke after he experienced engine trouble in the first two races of the playoffs.
Harvick has a firm grasp on that history.
"I think over the last four years, you can look at the 48 [Johnson's team], and they've done the same thing and won the championship," he said. "Until you beat the guy that's won the last four championships, we're fast enough to beat them, but the circumstances and all the things have to go your way over the last 10 weeks. It's not about a whole season anymore; it's about 10 weeks."
Harvick winning his first Cup championship is by no means out of the realm of possibility, but it would be a stunning upset if he dethrones Johnson's dynasty.
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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